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Tokyo core CPI seen up 3.8% in December, new 40-year-high: Reuters Poll

Friday, January 6, 2023
Tokyo core CPI seen up 3.8% in December, new 40-year-high: Reuters Poll © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: People make their way at a shopping district in Tokyo, Japan December 23, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

By Kantaro Komiya

TOKYO (Reuters) - Consumer prices in Japan's capital likely rose in December at the fastest pace in nearly 41 years, a Reuters poll of economists showed on Friday, as the market looks to inflation data for clues on a possible shift in monetary policy.

The core consumer price index (CPI) in Tokyo, a leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends, was expected to have climbed 3.8% in December from a year earlier on widening retail price rises, according to the median estimate of 16 economists.

That would follow a 3.6% increase in November and hit a fresh high since April 1982's 4.2% rise, when inflation was still hot in the aftermath of the 1970s' oil crises.

"Although global commodity prices have come down to the pre-Ukraine war levels and weakness in the yen has abated, price hikes in goods and services will likely continue since many Japanese firms haven't been able to reflect higher input costs on their selling prices," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

Japan's CPI figures have drawn unusual attention as traders look for any hints ahead of the Bank of Japan's Jan. 17-18 rate review that it may start to exit from its ultra-loose policy. The central bank jolted the market last month with a surprise tweak to its long-term yield cap, allowing rates to rise more.

Economists in the poll also expected the first month-on-month contraction in household spending in three months in November, a worrying sign for a consumption-led recovery of the world's third-largest economy.

Household spending likely dropped 0.5% in November from the previous month, while it was forecast to have risen 0.5% from the same month a year earlier, according to the poll.

The poll also showed, Japan's current account balance likely returned to a surplus of 471.1 billion yen ($3.52 billion) in November, after October's 64.1 billion yen deficit, the first shortfall since January.

The government will release the Tokyo CPI data and household spending data on Jan. 10 at 8:30 a.m. (Jan. 9, 2330 GMT). The current account data is due on Jan. 12 at 8:50 a.m. (Jan. 11, 2350 GMT).

($1 = 133.7600 yen)

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27-01-2023 21:21:11 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.0854↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2353↑ Sell
 USD/JPY129.88↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7099↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3339↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY141.00Neutral
 EUR/CHF1.0017↑ Sell
 Gold1,929.00Neutral
 Silver23.642Buy
 Copper4.2497Buy
 Crude Oil WTI82.33↑ Buy
 Brent Oil88.82↑ Buy
 Natural Gas2.864↑ Buy
 US Coffee C167.30↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,160.95Neutral
 S&P 5004,060.43↑ Buy
 DAX15,099.45Neutral
 FTSE 1007,763.17Neutral
 Hang Seng22,688.90Buy
 Small Cap 20001,903.06↑ Buy
 IBEX 359,035.66↑ Buy
 BASF52.620↑ Buy
 Bayer56.29↑ Buy
 Allianz221.57↑ Buy
 Adidas147.48Buy
 Lufthansa9.736Neutral
 Siemens AG143.60↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG12.323Sell
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SJC Eximbank6,720/ 6,820
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Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V23.01023.470
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E5 RON 92-II21.35021.770
DO 0.05S21.63022.060
DO 0,001S-V23.39023.850
Dầu hỏa 2-K21.80022.230
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Brent$88.52-1.14-1.31%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.260,0023.630,00
EUR24.857,5526.249,47
GBP28.270,1829.475,66
JPY175,71186,02
KRW16,4320,02
Cập nhật lúc 18:54:25 27/01/2023
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