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Traders see a method to Turkish lira's recent slide

By Nevzat Devranoglu ANKARA (Reuters) - A six-day slide in Turkey's lira has left traders predicting that authorities are now targeting a new level, as weak as 15.5 to the dollar,...
Traders see a method to Turkish lira's recent slide © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan/

By Nevzat Devranoglu

ANKARA (Reuters) - A six-day slide in Turkey's lira has left traders predicting that authorities are now targeting a new level, as weak as 15.5 to the dollar, in a months-long effort to stabilise the exchange rate using its depleted reserves together with other measures.

Four Turkish traders said the central bank has likely set a new trading band of 15 to 15.5, allowing some depreciation in the face of a global flight to the dollar and to relieve pressure on the bank's dwindling foreign reserves.

One bank trader said more depreciation would be allowed so that the lira remains between 15.5 and 16 to the dollar, which has risen as the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates to head off inflation, hurting emerging markets.

The lira has returned to lows last hit in late December, after a series of unorthodox interest rate cuts sparked a currency crisis that rattled the economy.

On Thursday, it weakened as far as 15.4295 and was at 15.382 as of 0832 GMT. It has lost more than 14% of its value this year, following a 44% plunge last year.

Given that the central bank's reserves are actually negative when swaps are accounted for, traders said lira weakening was necessary if the bank plans to keep trying to steady the exchange rate as it has done since the December crisis.

"If the government sets a firm level in exchange rates without taking into account international developments, the reserves cost will be massive. The exchange rate cannot sit at a certain level for long with negative reserves," a senior banker told Reuters.

"Even though we do not think this policy is right, we see the lira's recent weakening as a necessity. Otherwise it could have gotten out of control."

The central bank's forex reserves have dropped sharply in recent years, most recently due to billions of dollars the bank sold in market interventions to stem the crisis, only some of which were announced publicly.

The bank's net foreign reserves were $17 billion at the end of April.

The central bank says the exchange rate is determined by the market. But bankers' calculations show central bank reserves are not rising as much as they should given rules such as the requirement for exporters to sell 40% of their hard currency profits to the central bank, suggesting the bank is still intervening.

Investors describe the FX rate as a "government-controlled" regime. Many say it cannot last in the long run given Turkey's inflation and current account deficit have soared, and funds are fleeing emerging markets in general.

Still, the currency has been notably stable this year, apart from just after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which sent Turkey's energy import costs soaring.

In its latest stabilising effort, authorities asked banks to carry out trades with corporate clients between 10 a.m. (0700 GMT) and 4 p.m. (1300 GMT) when the market is most liquid to help avoid price swings, Reuters reported this week.

At the height of the December crisis the lira touched 18.4 to the dollar, leading the central bank to intervene and the government to announce measures including a scheme to protect lira deposits against depreciation.

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28-05-2022 20:48:52 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0735

+0.0011 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Buy (12)

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EUR/USD

1.0735

+0.0011 (+0.10%)

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↑ Buy

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GBP/USD

1.2629

+0.0035 (+0.28%)

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USD/JPY

127.13

-0.01 (-0.01%)

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AUD/USD

0.7161

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USD/CAD

1.2723

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Neutral

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EUR/JPY

136.48

+0.14 (+0.10%)

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EUR/CHF

1.0278

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Gold Futures

1,851.64

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Silver Futures

22.130

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Copper Futures

4.3225

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

115.07

+0.98 (+0.86%)

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Brent Oil Futures

115.32

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Natural Gas Futures

8.708

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US Coffee C Futures

228.65

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,808.86

+68.55 (+1.83%)

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↑ Buy

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S&P 500

4,158.24

+100.40 (+2.47%)

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DAX

14,462.19

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FTSE 100

7,585.46

+20.54 (+0.27%)

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Hang Seng

20,697.36

+581.16 (+2.89%)

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↑ Buy

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US Small Cap 2000

1,887.90

+49.66 (+2.70%)

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Neutral

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IBEX 35

8,933.60

+44.80 (+0.50%)

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BASF SE NA O.N.

51.110

+0.320 (+0.63%)

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Neutral

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Bayer AG NA

66.58

+0.68 (+1.03%)

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↑ Buy

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

200.20

+1.40 (+0.70%)

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Adidas AG

179.96

+3.20 (+1.81%)

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.881

+0.031 (+0.45%)

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Siemens AG Class N

121.86

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Buy

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Deutsche Bank AG

10.392

-0.022 (-0.21%)

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Indicators:

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Sell (6)

 EUR/USD1.0735↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2629Sell
 USD/JPY127.13↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7161↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2723Neutral
 EUR/JPY136.48↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0278↑ Buy
 Gold1,851.64↑ Buy
 Silver22.130↑ Buy
 Copper4.3225↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI115.07↑ Sell
 Brent Oil115.32↑ Sell
 Natural Gas8.708↑ Buy
 US Coffee C228.65↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,808.86↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,158.24↑ Buy
 DAX14,462.19↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,585.46Sell
 Hang Seng20,697.36↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,887.90Neutral
 IBEX 358,933.60↑ Buy
 BASF51.110Neutral
 Bayer66.58↑ Buy
 Allianz200.20↑ Buy
 Adidas179.96↑ Buy
 Lufthansa6.881↑ Buy
 Siemens AG121.86Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG10.392↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,830/ 6,940
(0/ 0) # 1,716
SJC HCM6,850/ 6,950
(-5/ -5) # 1,738
SJC Hanoi6,850/ 6,952
(-5/ -5) # 1,740
SJC Danang6,850/ 6,952
(-5/ -5) # 1,740
SJC Nhatrang6,850/ 6,952
(-5/ -5) # 1,740
SJC Cantho6,850/ 6,952
(-5/ -5) # 1,740
Cập nhật 28-05-2022 20:48:54
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,853.48+0.570.03%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V31.25031.870
RON 95-III30.65031.260
E5 RON 92-II29.63030.220
DO 0.05S25.55026.060
DO 0,001S-V26.35026.870
Dầu hỏa 2-K24.40024.880
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$113.93+1.171.01%
Brent$115.32+4.013.36%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.030,0023.340,00
EUR24.263,1125.622,23
GBP28.523,9629.740,84
JPY177,60188,03
KRW15,9119,38
Cập nhật lúc 18:52:52 28/05/2022
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