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UK faces stagnation and recession risk, CBI warns

13 Tháng Sáu 2022
UK faces stagnation and recession risk, CBI warns © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Woman holds British pound banknotes in this illustration taken May 30, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

By David Milliken

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's economy faces stagnation next year and could easily fall into recession, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) warned on Monday after it slashed its outlook for growth due to surging inflation.

The CBI is the third major body to cut its growth forecasts for Britain in the past week, following a downgrade from the British Chambers of Commerce and a warning from the OECD that Britain had the weakest outlook of any major economy bar Russia.

"Let me be clear – we're expecting the economy to be pretty much stagnant. It won't take much to tip us into a recession. And even if we don't, it will feel like one for too many people," CBI director-general Tony Danker said.

Households' real disposable incomes are on track to fall 2.2% this year, the largest decline since records began in the 1950s, the CBI predicted, despite 37 billion pounds ($46 billion) of cost-of-living support measures from Britain's government.

The CBI predicts Britain's economy will grow 1.0% next year, down from a previous forecast of 3.0%.

The growth of 3.7% forecast by the CBI for 2022 largely reflects a favourable comparison with depressed output in 2021, when businesses faced COVID-19 restrictions for much of the year.

The CBI urged the government to commit to replacing a generous tax break on business investment that is due to expire, and to avoid unilateral action in a dispute with the European Union over post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland.

"This is a tough set of statistics to stomach. War in Ukraine, a global pandemic, continued strains on supply chains – all preceded by Brexit – has proven to be a toxic recipe for UK growth," CBI chief economist Rain Newton-Smith said.

($1 = 0.8118 pounds)

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27-06-2022 06:15:40 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0569

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EUR/USD

1.0569

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 EUR/USD1.0569Buy
 GBP/USD1.2291↑ Buy
 USD/JPY135.16↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6955↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2891↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY142.85↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0111Neutral
 Gold1,834.40↑ Sell
 Silver21.220↑ Sell
 Copper3.7742Buy
 Crude Oil WTI106.27Sell
 Brent Oil107.80↑ Sell
 Natural Gas6.207↑ Sell
 US Coffee C223.40↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,533.17Neutral
 S&P 5003,911.74↑ Buy
 DAX13,118.13↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,208.81↑ Buy
 Hang Seng21,719.06↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,765.74↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,244.10Sell
 BASF42.215↑ Buy
 Bayer57.79↑ Sell
 Allianz181.20↑ Sell
 Adidas170.36↑ Sell
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