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US Consumers’ Year-Ahead Inflation Views Drop to Lowest Since April 2021

Saturday, January 14, 2023
US Consumers’ Year-Ahead Inflation Views Drop to Lowest Since April 2021

(Bloomberg) -- US short-term inflation expectations fell in early January to the lowest in nearly two years, providing a bigger-than-expected boost to consumer sentiment.

Respondents said they expect prices to advance 4% over the next year, the lowest since April 2021, the University of Michigan’s preliminary survey reading showed Friday. The sentiment index rose to a nine-month high of 64.6 from 59.7 at the end of the year, beating all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Consumers expect inflation to rise 3% over the next five to ten years, a slight uptick from the prior month. The Federal Reserve watches long-term views especially closely, as expectations can become self-fulfilling and lead to higher prices.

Data out Thursday showed that US inflation continued its downward trend in December, adding to evidence price pressures have peaked and offering the Fed room to slow the pace of interest-rate hikes next month.

Combined with a strong labor market, Americans are feeling increasingly upbeat about the economy and their finances. Prices at the pump have fallen sharply from summer highs, grocery inflation has slowed and unemployment has retreated to a five-decade low.

The university’s gauge of current personal finances rose to an eight-month high, while expectations climbed to the highest in a year. A majority of respondents said they anticipate their incomes to rise at least as fast as prices in the year ahead, the most since October 2021.

The measures of current conditions and future expectations both advanced to the highest in nine months. Buying conditions for large household goods also improved, though consumers noted higher borrowing costs.

Recession risks remain, however, and are one of the factors restraining consumer sentiment from rebounding to its pre-pandemic level. Many economists expect the Fed’s interest rate hikes to tip the economy into a downturn at some point over the next year, pushing up unemployment.

The economic outlook for the year ahead worsened but improved over the next five years to the highest since April, the report said.

“Two-thirds of consumers expect an economic downturn in the year ahead, reflecting how low sentiment remains despite recent improvements,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

“That said, given current historic lows in unemployment and strength in expected incomes, a gradual slowdown in spending appears more likely than a cliff-like drop,” she said.

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03-03-2024 20:34:24 (UTC+7)

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EUR/USD

1.0837

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 EUR/USD1.0837↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2655Sell
 USD/JPY150.10Buy
 AUD/USD0.6525↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3562↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY162.73↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9577↑ Buy
 Gold2,091.60↑ Sell
 Silver23.345↑ Sell
 Copper3.8585↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI79.81Buy
 Brent Oil83.46↑ Buy
 Natural Gas1.836↑ Buy
 US Coffee C184.13Neutral
 Euro Stoxx 504,894.05Buy
 S&P 5005,137.08↑ Buy
 DAX17,735.00↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,682.50↑ Sell
 Hang Seng16,589.44↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,076.39↑ Buy
 IBEX 3510,064.70↑ Buy
 BASF47.985↑ Sell
 Bayer28.33↑ Sell
 Allianz251.80Buy
 Adidas187.00↑ Buy
 Lufthansa7.191Sell
 Siemens AG181.28Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG12.566Neutral
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