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U.S. dollar has peaked due to softer inflation, jobs -Barclays, Deutsche

17 Tháng Mười Một 2022
U.S. dollar has peaked due to softer inflation, jobs -Barclays, Deutsche © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. one hundred dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration taken in Seoul February 7, 2011. REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won/File Photo
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar may have already seen its highest levels for the year given growing evidence of slowing inflation and a weakening labor market in the world's largest economy, Barclays (LON:BARC) and Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) wrote in research notes on Wednesday.

Apart from domestic factors, Barclays said the improving European energy supply and demand situation as well as China's reopening expectations are good enough reasons to unwind some of the risk premium that has supported the dollar this year.

Barclays has advanced the downturn in the dollar into the fourth quarter this year, from its previous forecast of the first quarter of 2023.

Since late September, the dollar index has fallen about 8%.

The British bank has also revised its end-2022 forecast for euro/dollar to $1.03, from its previous estimate of $0.97.

"The upside risk to the EUR consists of sufficiently improved gas and oil supplies so that the possibility of shortages is no longer a risk factor constraining production," Barclays said, adding that peace or a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war would be a further boost.

Deutsche, on the other hand, expects the euro to end the year at $1.05.

That said, the German bank noted it still expects a choppy market for the dollar, with one major issue: the extent and speed of U.S. disinflation, or an overall slowing of the rise in overall prices.

"For a big dollar downtrend to kick off, we really need more confidence that U.S. inflation – and by extension Fed Fund pricing - is sustainably coming down," wrote Deutsche.

Deutsche is tracking the shape of the U.S. yield curve to determine where the dollar is headed. The bank said the U.S. 5-year/30-year yield curve needs to steepen aggressively to start a big dollar downtrend.

That curve has steepened since late September, with the spread currently at 4.4 basis points.

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28-11-2022 09:10:51 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0344

-0.0051 (-0.49%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

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EUR/USD

1.0344

-0.0051 (-0.49%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

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GBP/USD

1.2028

-0.0065 (-0.54%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (9)

USD/JPY

138.71

-0.38 (-0.28%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

AUD/USD

0.6671

-0.0078 (-1.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

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USD/CAD

1.3465

+0.0088 (+0.66%)

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Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

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Buy (2)

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EUR/JPY

143.49

-1.10 (-0.76%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

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Buy (4)

Sell (5)

EUR/CHF

0.9800

-0.0027 (-0.27%)

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Sell (11)

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Gold Futures

1,746.50

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Sell (12)

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21.117

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3.5530

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74.44

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81.80

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US Coffee C Futures

164.40

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,962.41

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Sell (2)

S&P 500

4,026.12

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Neutral

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DAX

14,541.38

+1.82 (+0.01%)

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FTSE 100

7,486.67

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Sell (5)

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Hang Seng

16,936.00

-637.58 (-3.63%)

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Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

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Sell (8)

US Small Cap 2000

1,869.19

+6.37 (+0.34%)

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Moving Avg:

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8,416.60

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Sell (6)

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49.605

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55.45

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123.98

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7.567

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132.06

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10.390

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    EUR/USD 1.0344 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2028 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 138.71 Neutral  
    AUD/USD 0.6671 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3465 Neutral  
    EUR/JPY 143.49 Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9800 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,746.50 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 21.117 Neutral  
    Copper 3.5530 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 74.44 Sell  
    Brent Oil 81.80 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 7.290 ↑ Buy  
    US Coffee C 164.40 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,962.41 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,026.12 Neutral  
    DAX 14,541.38 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,486.67 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 16,936.00 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,869.19 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 8,416.60 Sell  
    BASF 49.605 Neutral  
    Bayer 55.45 Sell  
    Allianz 205.35 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 123.98 Neutral  
    Lufthansa 7.567 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 132.06 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 10.390 ↑ Buy  
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,660/ 6,730
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