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Weekly Comic: Hard Lessons on Growth and Inflation

03 Tháng Tám 2022
Weekly Comic: Hard Lessons on Growth and Inflation © Investing.com

By Geoffrey Smith

Investing.com -- You can argue about whether or not you’re in a recession (if you really have nothing better to do), but there’s no arguing that the world is in a rare and extreme synchronized growth slowdown.

The three areas that account for nearly 60% of global economic output – the U.S., China and Europe – are all losing momentum, a point drummed home with typical undertaker-like sobriety by the  International Monetary Fund last week as it cut its growth forecasts for the next 18 months yet again.

True, the IMF’s forecasts have a reputation of being so far behind the rest of the market that they act as a reverse indicator: The time to go bullish is when the IMF is at its most bearish, so the logic goes.

And U.S. investors, at least, seem to have taken that lesson to heart last week, with a ripping rally in U.S. stocks. Copper, too, has bounced vigorously in the last two weeks, suggesting that Chinese investors also want to believe that the worst is behind them.

But is that really the case?

Each of those regions has a particular problem to deal with. And in none of those cases has the underlying cause of that problem been dealt with.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy. While a growing number of indicators - not least the June Job Openings survey released on Tuesday - support the argument that tightening is having the desired effect on the housing and labor markets in particular, inflation itself remains sticky. Sequential monthly price increases have remained strong, and gains in average hourly earnings remain solid. The shortage of labor in many sectors of the economy remains acute, ensuring that workers’ bargaining power is higher than in much of recent history.

In Europe, meanwhile, there is no end in sight to Russia’s war in Ukraine that has turned the region’s energy policy (if it can be called that) on its head. Germany, its biggest economy, faces a very real threat of gas rationing and recession as the year drags on.

In China, the rebound that accompanied the end of Shanghai’s lockdown in the spring looks increasingly like a false dawn. Global demand for Chinese goods is cooling as inflation forces consumers to focus on the essentials such as heating and food. The government still appears to have no plan for moving China to a state of living with Covid-19 and, more importantly, has still not resolved the chronic real estate crisis in any meaningful way.

Indeed, the latest news out of China suggests that the authorities either can’t or won’t take more radical action. The People’s Bank of China’s decision last week to release just enough funds to take the heat out of a buyers’ payment boycott was a case in point: the authorities will do just enough to nip popular unrest in the bud, but have no roadmap for clearing up the balance sheet of a desperately over-extended sector.  Evergrande, the largest of China’s troubled developers, missed a deadline to present a restructuring plan last week, despite having had nearly a year to put one together. Meanwhile, its more liquid assets appear to be being plundered by creditors with privileged status – something that led to the resignation of Evergrande’s CEO and CFO last month.

No wonder, then, that the IMF concluded that “the risks to the outlook are overwhelmingly tilted to the downside.

“The war in Ukraine could lead to a sudden stop of European gas imports from Russia; inflation could be harder to bring down than anticipated either if labor markets are tighter than expected or inflation expectations unanchor; tighter global financial conditions could induce debt distress in emerging market and developing economies; renewed COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns as well as a further escalation of the property sector crisis might further suppress Chinese growth; and geopolitical fragmentation could impede global trade and cooperation.”

The combination of supply-side and demand-driven inflation is still very real, and nowhere is there conclusive evidence of it ending yet. Against that background, going all in on a bullish pivot in markets seems, to say the least, premature.

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BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
13-08-2022 04:02:22 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0261

-0.0056 (-0.54%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0261

-0.0056 (-0.54%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.2135

-0.0076 (-0.63%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

USD/JPY

133.46

+0.46 (+0.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

AUD/USD

0.7121

+0.0016 (+0.23%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

USD/CAD

1.2774

+0.0013 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

136.93

-0.29 (-0.21%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

EUR/CHF

0.9659

-0.0046 (-0.48%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (3)

Gold Futures

1,817.70

+10.50 (+0.58%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Silver Futures

20.810

+0.461 (+2.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

3.6783

-0.0282 (-0.76%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

91.90

-2.44 (-2.59%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Brent Oil Futures

97.92

-1.68 (-1.69%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Natural Gas Futures

8.788

-0.086 (-0.97%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Coffee C Futures

227.53

+3.58 (+1.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,776.81

+19.76 (+0.53%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

S&P 500

4,280.15

+72.88 (+1.73%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

13,795.85

+101.34 (+0.74%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

FTSE 100

7,500.89

+34.98 (+0.47%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Hang Seng

20,175.62

+93.19 (+0.46%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

2,013.09

+37.84 (+1.92%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,400.40

+20.40 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

44.155

+0.730 (+1.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Bayer AG NA

54.15

+2.47 (+4.78%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

181.08

+2.08 (+1.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

Adidas AG

173.20

+1.18 (+0.69%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.588

+0.062 (+0.95%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Siemens AG Class N

111.84

+1.92 (+1.75%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Deutsche Bank AG

9.061

+0.197 (+2.22%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0261↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2135↑ Sell
 USD/JPY133.46↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7121↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2774↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY136.93Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9659↑ Sell
 Gold1,817.70↑ Buy
 Silver20.810↑ Buy
 Copper3.6783↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI91.90Neutral
 Brent Oil97.92Neutral
 Natural Gas8.788↑ Buy
 US Coffee C227.53↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,776.81Sell
 S&P 5004,280.15↑ Buy
 DAX13,795.85Neutral
 FTSE 1007,500.89Neutral
 Hang Seng20,175.62↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,013.09↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,400.40↑ Sell
 BASF44.155↑ Buy
 Bayer54.15↑ Buy
 Allianz181.08↑ Sell
 Adidas173.20↑ Buy
 Lufthansa6.588↑ Sell
 Siemens AG111.84↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG9.061↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,620/ 6,720
(0/ 0) # 1,655
SJC HCM6,630/ 6,730
(0/ 0) # 1,663
SJC Hanoi6,630/ 6,732
(0/ 0) # 1,665
SJC Danang6,630/ 6,732
(0/ 0) # 1,665
SJC Nhatrang6,630/ 6,732
(0/ 0) # 1,665
SJC Cantho6,630/ 6,732
(0/ 0) # 1,665
Cập nhật 13-08-2022 04:02:25
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,801.48+12.330.69%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V25.34025.840
RON 95-III24.66025.150
E5 RON 92-II23.72024.190
DO 0.05S22.90023.350
DO 0,001S-V24.88025.370
Dầu hỏa 2-K23.32023.780
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$91.88+0.550.60%
Brent$97.89+0.110.11%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.220,0023.530,00
EUR23.498,0024.813,92
GBP27.761,8728.945,83
JPY170,70180,72
KRW15,5018,89
Cập nhật lúc 18:51:42 12/08/2022
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