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Wild swing roil markets as hawkish Fed unleashes volatility

07 Tháng Năm 2022
Wild swing roil markets as hawkish Fed unleashes volatility © Reuters. A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., May 5, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Volatility has been the watchword for markets in the last several months, as worries over a hawkish Fed, sky-high commodity prices and geopolitical tensions stemming from the war in Ukraine roil asset prices.

The S&P 500 was recently down 1.2% on Friday and yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury were at a near 4-year high of 3.12%, capping off a week that saw massive swings in stocks and bonds in the days following the Fed’s monetary policy meeting.

Here are charts showing how volatility has broken out across markets and various factors driving the moves.

GRAPHIC: Volatile world - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gkplgkewnvb/Pasted%20image%201651850464155.png

A VOLATILE YEAR

Volatility has surged across asset classes over the last year, with stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities all experiencing more pronounced moves. Worries over how aggressively the Fed will tighten monetary policy in response to surging inflation has been a key driver of the moves, sparking gyrations in fixed-income markets, boosting the dollar to 20-year highs and weighing on stocks.

Concerns over how monetary policy tightening by central banks will affect global growth have recently come to the fore, with the Bank of England warning Thursday that Britain risks a double-whammy of a recession and inflation above 10% as it raised interest rates to their highest since 2009.

GRAPHIC: Real bad - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/mypmnyroevr/Pasted%20image%201651850295599.png

THE REAL DEAL

Another culprit – linked to expectations of a hawkish Fed – has been the sell-off in Treasuries which sent yields on the 10-year past 3% for the time since late 2018 on Thursday.

As yields climb, they can dull the allure of stocks, particularly those in high growth sectors such as technology, where companies’ cash flows are more weighted in the future and diminished when discounted at higher rates.

"If rates are going to shift into a higher range, then that begets a new valuation regime," wrote Michael Purves, CEO of Tallbacken Capital. "Regardless of the fundamentals, the process of regime shift is inherently volatile."

Meanwhile, real yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasuries – which subtract projected inflation from the nominal yield – recently turned positive for the first time since March 2020, eroding a key support for U.S. equities.

GRAPHIC: Stock swings - https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-MARKETS/VOLATILITY/znpnemgbevl/chart.png

BIG SWINGS

As a result, the year has so-far been marked by big moves in asset prices, especially equities. Through May 5, the S&P 500 has logged 44 daily moves of one percent or more so far this year – the second highest total in at least a decade and twice the number it had registered at this point in 2021.

Graphic: Dip-buyers feel the pain - https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-MARKETS/VOLATILITY/lgvdwgbnapo/chart.png

BUY THE DIP?

Volatility has weighed on investors and hammered sentiment. One possible casualty may be the strategy of buying the dip, or taking advantage of stock market weakness to scoop up shares.

While dip buyers were generally rewarded over the last two years, as a dovish Fed helped buoy markets, stepping in to buy on weakness has become far riskier in recent months. There have also been signs that retail investors – who have been avid dip buyers in the past – are more hesitant to do so.

Still, some investors see little evidence of the outright panic that has tended to mark past market bottoms.

"To find a bottom we typically like to see a vol spike, panic and another leg lower in (the S&P 500) to turns things around, wrote Christopher Murphy of Susquehanna International Group, in a Friday note.

An even more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed could potentially lead to such a state of panic, he wrote.

"That of course risks breaking some unforeseen things and would result in a lot of pain."

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23-05-2022 09:19:01 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0590

+0.0031 (+0.29%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0590

+0.0031 (+0.29%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2536

+0.0050 (+0.40%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

127.21

-0.64 (-0.50%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

AUD/USD

0.7083

+0.0050 (+0.71%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

USD/CAD

1.2811

-0.0025 (-0.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

EUR/JPY

134.72

-0.29 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

EUR/CHF

1.0287

-0.0009 (-0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Gold Futures

1,851.25

+9.15 (+0.50%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

21.852

+0.178 (+0.82%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Copper Futures

4.2975

-0.0067 (-0.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

110.69

+0.41 (+0.37%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Brent Oil Futures

110.50

+0.51 (+0.46%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Natural Gas Futures

8.176

-0.224 (-2.67%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Coffee C Futures

216.48

-2.22 (-1.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,657.03

+16.48 (+0.45%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

S&P 500

3,901.36

+0.57 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

13,981.91

+99.61 (+0.72%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,389.98

+87.24 (+1.19%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Hang Seng

20,416.50

-300.74 (-1.45%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

US Small Cap 2000

1,773.27

-2.96 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,484.50

+78.50 (+0.93%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

BASF SE NA O.N.

48.850

-0.010 (-0.02%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

63.74

+0.34 (+0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

195.58

+0.78 (+0.40%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

172.80

+0.92 (+0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.852

+0.049 (+0.72%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Siemens AG Class N

115.08

+2.62 (+2.33%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Deutsche Bank AG

9.362

-0.130 (-1.37%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

 EUR/USD1.0590↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2536↑ Buy
 USD/JPY127.21↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7083Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2811↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY134.72↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF1.0287↑ Sell
 Gold1,851.25↑ Buy
 Silver21.852Neutral
 Copper4.2975↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI110.69↑ Sell
 Brent Oil110.50↑ Sell
 Natural Gas8.176↑ Buy
 US Coffee C216.48↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,657.03↑ Buy
 S&P 5003,901.36↑ Buy
 DAX13,981.91Buy
 FTSE 1007,389.98Neutral
 Hang Seng20,416.50↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,773.27↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,484.50Neutral
 BASF48.850Buy
 Bayer63.74Buy
 Allianz195.58Buy
 Adidas172.80Buy
 Lufthansa6.852↑ Sell
 Siemens AG115.08Neutral
 Deutsche Bank AG9.362Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,880/ 6,980
(5/ 5) # 1,776
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(0/ 0) # 1,783
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Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V30.58031.190
RON 95-III29.98030.570
E5 RON 92-II28.95029.520
DO 0.05S26.65027.180
DO 0,001S-V27.45027.990
Dầu hỏa 2-K25.16025.660
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WTI$110.29-0.59-0.53%
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Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.005,0023.315,00
EUR23.899,8625.238,69
GBP28.277,1029.483,51
JPY176,47186,83
KRW15,8019,25
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