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World Bank warns global economy could easily tip into recession in 2023

11 Tháng Giêng 2023

By David Lawder

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The World Bank slashed its 2023 growth forecasts on Tuesday to levels teetering on the brink of recession for many countries as the impact of central bank rate hikes intensifies, Russia's war in Ukraine continues, and the world's major economic engines sputter.

The development lender said it now expected global GDP growth of 1.7% in 2023 -- the slowest pace outside the 2009 and 2020 recessions in nearly three decades. In its previous Global Economic Prospects report, in June 2022, the bank had forecast 2023 global growth at 3.0%

The bank said major slowdowns in advanced economies, including sharp cuts to its forecast to 0.5% for both the United States and the euro zone, could foreshadow a new global recession less than three years after the last one.

"Given fragile economic conditions, any new adverse development -- such as higher-than-expected inflation, abrupt rises in interest rates to contain it, a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic or escalating geopolitical tensions -- could push the global economy into recession," the bank said in a statement accompanying the report.

The bleak outlook will be especially hard on emerging market and developing economies, the World Bank said, as they struggle with heavy debt burdens, weak currencies and income growth, and slowing business investment that is now forecast at a 3.5% annual growth rate over the next two years -- less than half the pace of the past two decades.

"Weakness in growth and business investment will compound the already devastating reversals in education, health, poverty and infrastructure and the increasing demands from climate change," World Bank President David Malpass said in a statement.

China's growth in 2022 slumped to 2.7%, its second slowest pace since the mid-1970s after 2020, as zero-COVID restrictions, property market turmoil and drought hit consumption, production and investment, the World Bank report said. It predicted a rebound to 4.3% for 2023, but that is 0.9 percentage-point below the June forecast due to the severity of COVID disruptions and weakening external demand.

The World Bank noted that some inflationary pressures started to abate as 2022 drew to a close, with lower energy and commodity prices, but warned that risks of new supply disruptions were high, and elevated core inflation may persist. This could cause central banks to respond by raising policy rates by more than currently expected, worsening the global slowdown, it added.

The bank called for increased support from the international community to help low-income countries deal with food and energy shocks, people displaced by conflicts, and a growing risk of debt crises. It said new concessional financing and grants are needed along with the leveraging of private capital and domestic resources to help boost investment in climate adaptation, human capital and health, the report said.

The report comes as the World Bank's board this week is expected to consider a new "evolution road map" for the institution to vastly expand its lending capacity to address climate change and other global crises. The plan will guide negotiations with shareholders, led by the United States, for the biggest revamp in the bank's business model since its creation at the end of World War Two.

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29-01-2023 22:35:59 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0869

-0.0020 (-0.18%)

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EUR/USD

1.0869

-0.0020 (-0.18%)

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GBP/USD

1.2399

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USD/JPY

129.85

-0.35 (-0.27%)

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AUD/USD

0.7108

-0.0006 (-0.08%)

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USD/CAD

1.3311

-0.0009 (-0.07%)

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EUR/JPY

141.14

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Gold Futures

1,928.00

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Silver Futures

23.725

-0.295 (-1.23%)

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Copper Futures

4.2300

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79.38

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Brent Oil Futures

86.40

0.00 (0.00%)

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Natural Gas Futures

2.856

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US Coffee C Futures

169.25

+2.10 (+1.26%)

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4,178.01

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S&P 500

4,070.56

+10.13 (+0.25%)

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DAX

15,150.03

+17.18 (+0.11%)

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FTSE 100

7,765.15

+4.04 (+0.05%)

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Hang Seng

(%)

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US Small Cap 2000

1,911.46

+8.39 (+0.44%)

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9,060.20

+24.60 (+0.27%)

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Bank of America Corp

(%)

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52.790

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56.28

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221.65

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148.30

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9.755

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 EUR/USD1.0869↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2399↑ Buy
 USD/JPY129.85Buy
 AUD/USD0.7108↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3311Neutral
 EUR/JPY141.14↑ Buy
 ↑ Buy
 Gold1,928.00↑ Sell
 Silver23.725↑ Buy
 Copper4.2300↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI79.38↑ Sell
 Brent Oil86.40↑ Sell
 Natural Gas2.856↑ Sell
 US Coffee C169.25Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,178.01↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,070.56↑ Sell
 DAX15,150.03↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,765.15↑ Buy
 Hang SengBuy
 Small Cap 20001,911.46↑ Sell
 IBEX 359,060.20↑ Buy
 Bank of America↑ Sell
 BASF52.790↑ Buy
 Bayer56.28↑ Buy
 Allianz221.65↑ Buy
 Adidas148.30Sell
 Lufthansa9.755↑ Buy
 Siemens AG↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,720/ 6,820
(6,720/ 6,820) # 1,331
SJC HCM6,720/ 6,820
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SJC Hanoi6,720/ 6,822
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SJC Nhatrang6,720/ 6,822
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(-20/ -20) # 1,333
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Cập nhật lúc 18:54:06 29/01/2023
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